This Sunday’s Oscar ceremony is set to deliver one of the tightest races in recent memory, as Sinners faces off against One Battle After Another. The latter film has won the top prize at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and Critics’ Choice Awards, but with a Best Ensemble Cast win at the Actor Awards and a record-breaking 16 nominations from the Academy, could Ryan Coogler’s vampire epic overtake Paul Thomas Anderson’s thriller at the last—and biggest—hurdle? And will Amy Madigan be rewarded for her enigmatic turn as Aunt Gladys in Weapons? We’re predicting the outcome of every category with a horror film competing in it—which, with Sinners’ historic tally, is nearly every category.

Best Picture 

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another 

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

This awards season has branded One Battle After Another as the clear frontrunner to go all the way. The political thriller has an esteemed Hollywood director behind it, whose work has long been admired despite his never winning an Oscar himself—pair that with Leonardo DiCaprio as the lead and the film’s undeniable big-screen spectacle, and you have a clear favourite. But the Academy, more than any other awarding body this season, has evidently warmed to Sinners. It may be swayed by the hopeful bias of this horror fan, but I wager that Sinners’ top prize at the Actor Awards marked a late turn in the tide for this year’s Best Picture race.

Will Win: Sinners

Could Win: One Battle After Another

Best Actress 

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

However one spins it, Bugonia is a horror film—just listen to that Jerskin Fendrix score—and it’s a nightmarish thrill ride held together by two sensational performances from Jessie Plemons (this year’s biggest snub in the Best Actor category) and Emma Stone. That said, the two-time Best Actress winner has little to no chance in this category, which is all but locked for Jessie Buckley’s raw, deserving performance in Hamnet. Curiously, with several horror films—Sinners, Weapons, and Frankenstein—primed for potential wins, recognising Buckley’s dramatic turn may be the most conventional award of the night for a ceremony with a famed distinct taste.

Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet 

Could Win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Actor 

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

A nail-bitingly tense race, Best Actor has been a wildly unpredictable category this season. Timothée Chalamet was the early frontrunner, nabbing the Critics’ Choice Award and Golden Globe in the musical/comedy variant, but Michael B. Jordan’s Actor Award has thrown a spanner in the works. Couple Jordan’s win with Wagner Moura’s Golden Globe victory for Best Actor (Drama) and Robert Aramayo’s surprise BAFTA win, and it’s anyone’s guess who comes out on top. Still, despite its old-school dramatic charm, Marty Supreme has had a muted awards season—and Chalamet’s braggadocious energy in recent press tours (see his claim that “nobody cares about [ballet and opera]”) may harm him more than help him. In this confusion, I’m eyeing Michael B. Jordan’s technically and dramatically impressive dual performance in Sinners to bring home the gold statue.

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actress 

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Another uncertain category, Supporting Actress has been described as a three-way race between Amy Madigan, Wunmi Mosaku, and Teyana Taylor. Despite her BAFTA win and her exceptional performance, I don’t think Mosaku is as much of a contender as some think. Instead, this will go down to the wire between Madigan and Taylor, but because of her holistic career and the cultural phenomenon her character became, Madigan looks set to edge her competitors out.

Will Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Could Win: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor 

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Despite Jacob Elordi’s early Critics’ Choice Awards win, this race has been whittled down to two contenders: Sean Penn and Stellan Skarsgård. One Battle After Another’s two nominees could split the vote and allow Skarsgård—or even Delroy Lindo in an unexpected win—but this is Penn’s award to lose.

Will Win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Could Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

While Sinners may take the top prize, Best Director appears to have Paul Thomas Anderson’s name on it. After years of industry recognition without an Academy Award, his ambitious, epic thriller is an ideal vehicle to finally change that—just don’t count out a surprise win for Coogler.

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Could Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Original Screenplay

Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Will Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners 

Could Win: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Best Adapted Screenplay

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams

Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Will Tracy, Bugonia

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Could Win: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Best Casting

Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent

Nina Gold, Hamnet

Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another

Francine Maisler, Sinners

Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme

Will Win: Francine Maisler, Sinners 

Could Win: Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another

Best Production Design

Hannah Beachler & Monique Champagne, Sinners

Fiona Crombie & Alice Felton, Hamnet

Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau, Frankenstein

Jack Fisk & Adam Willis, Marty Supreme

Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino, One Battle After Another

Will Win: Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau, Frankenstein

Could Win: Hannah Beachler & Monique Champagne, Sinners

Best Cinematography

Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another

Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme

Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein

Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams

Will Win: Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another

Could Win: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

Best Costume Design

Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme

Ruth E. Carter, Sinners

Kate Hawley, Frankenstein

Deborah L. Scott, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Malgosia Turzanska, Train Dreams

Will Win: Kate Hawley, Frankenstein

Could Win: Ruth E. Carter, Sinners

Best Editing

Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value

Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another

Stephen Mirrione, F1

Michael P. Shawver, Sinners

Will Win: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another

Could Win: Michael P. Shawver, Sinners

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine & Shunika Terry, Sinners

Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg, The Ugly Stepsister

Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel & Cliona Furey, Frankenstein

Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin & Bjoern Rehbein, The Smashing Machine

Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino & Tadashi Nishimatsu, Kokuho

Will Win: Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel & Cliona Furey, Frankenstein

Could Win: Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine & Shunika Terry, Sinners

Best Sound

José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio & Tony Villaflor, One Battle After Another

Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke & Brad Zoern, Frankenstein

Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo & Juan Peralta, F1

Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas & Yasmina Praderas, Sirat

Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor & Steve Boeddeker Sinners

Will Win: Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo & Juan Peralta, F1

Could Win: Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor & Steve Boeddeker Sinners

Best Visual Effects

Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon & Daniel Barrett, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen & Brandon K. McLaughlin, The Lost Bus

Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean, Sinners

Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington & Keith Dawson, F1

David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan & Neil Corbould, Jurassic World: Rebirth

Will Win: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon & Daniel Barrett, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Could Win: Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean, Sinners

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein

Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia

Ludwig Göransson, Sinners

Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another

Max Richter, Hamnet

Will Win: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners

Could Win: Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless, Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon & Teddy Park

“I Lied To You” from Sinners, Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq & Ludwig Goransson

“Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from Viva Verdi! Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike

“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave 

Will Win: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon & Teddy Park

Could Win: “I Lied To You” from Sinners, Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq & Ludwig Goransson