Oscars 2026 Predictions: Will Sinners Take It All?
It’s the Ryan Coogler film vs Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another in a heated contest
By Alex Kaan 13 March 2026
© Warner Bros.
This Sunday’s Oscar ceremony is set to deliver one of the tightest races in recent memory, as Sinners faces off against One Battle After Another. The latter film has won the top prize at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and Critics’ Choice Awards, but with a Best Ensemble Cast win at the Actor Awards and a record-breaking 16 nominations from the Academy, could Ryan Coogler’s vampire epic overtake Paul Thomas Anderson’s thriller at the last—and biggest—hurdle? And will Amy Madigan be rewarded for her enigmatic turn as Aunt Gladys in Weapons? We’re predicting the outcome of every category with a horror film competing in it—which, with Sinners’ historic tally, is nearly every category.
Best Picture
© Warner Bros.
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
This awards season has branded One Battle After Another as the clear frontrunner to go all the way. The political thriller has an esteemed Hollywood director behind it, whose work has long been admired despite his never winning an Oscar himself—pair that with Leonardo DiCaprio as the lead and the film’s undeniable big-screen spectacle, and you have a clear favourite. But the Academy, more than any other awarding body this season, has evidently warmed to Sinners. It may be swayed by the hopeful bias of this horror fan, but I wager that Sinners’ top prize at the Actor Awards marked a late turn in the tide for this year’s Best Picture race.
Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Best Actress
© A24
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
However one spins it, Bugonia is a horror film—just listen to that Jerskin Fendrix score—and it’s a nightmarish thrill ride held together by two sensational performances from Jessie Plemons (this year’s biggest snub in the Best Actor category) and Emma Stone. That said, the two-time Best Actress winner has little to no chance in this category, which is all but locked for Jessie Buckley’s raw, deserving performance in Hamnet. Curiously, with several horror films—Sinners, Weapons, and Frankenstein—primed for potential wins, recognising Buckley’s dramatic turn may be the most conventional award of the night for a ceremony with a famed distinct taste.
Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Could Win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Best Actor
© Warner Bros.
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
A nail-bitingly tense race, Best Actor has been a wildly unpredictable category this season. Timothée Chalamet was the early frontrunner, nabbing the Critics’ Choice Award and Golden Globe in the musical/comedy variant, but Michael B. Jordan’s Actor Award has thrown a spanner in the works. Couple Jordan’s win with Wagner Moura’s Golden Globe victory for Best Actor (Drama) and Robert Aramayo’s surprise BAFTA win, and it’s anyone’s guess who comes out on top. Still, despite its old-school dramatic charm, Marty Supreme has had a muted awards season—and Chalamet’s braggadocious energy in recent press tours (see his claim that “nobody cares about [ballet and opera]”) may harm him more than help him. In this confusion, I’m eyeing Michael B. Jordan’s technically and dramatically impressive dual performance in Sinners to bring home the gold statue.
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Best Supporting Actress
© Warner Bros.
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Another uncertain category, Supporting Actress has been described as a three-way race between Amy Madigan, Wunmi Mosaku, and Teyana Taylor. Despite her BAFTA win and her exceptional performance, I don’t think Mosaku is as much of a contender as some think. Instead, this will go down to the wire between Madigan and Taylor, but because of her holistic career and the cultural phenomenon her character became, Madigan looks set to edge her competitors out.
Will Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Could Win: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
© Warner Bros.
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Despite Jacob Elordi’s early Critics’ Choice Awards win, this race has been whittled down to two contenders: Sean Penn and Stellan Skarsgård. One Battle After Another’s two nominees could split the vote and allow Skarsgård—or even Delroy Lindo in an unexpected win—but this is Penn’s award to lose.
Will Win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Could Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Best Director
© Warner Bros.
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
While Sinners may take the top prize, Best Director appears to have Paul Thomas Anderson’s name on it. After years of industry recognition without an Academy Award, his ambitious, epic thriller is an ideal vehicle to finally change that—just don’t count out a surprise win for Coogler.
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Could Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Best Original Screenplay
Getty
Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
If all else fails, Ryan Coogler is at least going home with one Oscar tonight. The Sinners writer-director is all but a lock to win with his genre-bending screenplay. I would have initially expected Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie’s breathless script for Marty Supreme to have provided more competition this awards season, but the film doesn’t seem to have found the favour of any major voting bodies.
Will Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Could Win: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Best Adapted Screenplay
© Focus Features
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Will Tracy, Bugonia
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Just as Coogler’s win for Original Screenplay is practically confirmed, Adapted Screenplay is Paul Thomas Anderson’s to lose. Anderson’s One Battle After Another is an extremely loose adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s 1990 novel Vineland, but it has consequently been put in a category with little competition in its way.
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Could Win: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Best Casting
© Warner Bros.
Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent
Nina Gold, Hamnet
Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another
Francine Maisler, Sinners
Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme
While Sinners’ Best Ensemble Cast win at the Actor Awards has given it a boost in its Best Picture chances, it’s entirely possible that it loses the top prize but still gets the inaugural Best Casting award. Sinners’ huge, dynamic ensemble is likely to beat out One Battle After Another, especially given that Delroy Lindo and Wunmi Mosaku snagged nominations in the supporting acting categories after missing out at previous ceremonies.
Will Win: Francine Maisler, Sinners
Could Win: Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another
Best Production Design
© A24
Hannah Beachler & Monique Champagne, Sinners
Fiona Crombie & Alice Felton, Hamnet
Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau, Frankenstein
Jack Fisk & Adam Willis, Marty Supreme
Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino, One Battle After Another
This year, the artisan categories belong to Frankenstein. Guillermo del Toro’s big-budget Gothic blockbuster is a visual feast, and production designer Tamara Deverell and set decorator Shanve Vieau should win this comfortably.
Will Win: Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau, Frankenstein
Could Win: Hannah Beachler & Monique Champagne, Sinners
Best Cinematography
© Warner Bros.
Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another
Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners
Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme
Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein
Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams
Shot in 35mm, largely using VistaVision cameras, One Battle After Another’s kinetic, epic cinematography should best its rivals. If Michael Bauman does lose, it will be to Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s work on Sinners, for which she was the first female DP to shoot 65mm in IMAX format.
Will Win: Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another
Could Win: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners
Best Costume Design
© Netflix
Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme
Ruth E. Carter, Sinners
Kate Hawley, Frankenstein
Deborah L. Scott, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Malgosia Turzanska, Train Dreams
The battle in Costume Design this year is between two period horror films. Following her Critics’ Choice Awards and BAFTA wins, Kate Hawley’s lavish Frankenstein costumes are primed to beat Ruth E. Carter’s work in Sinners.
Will Win: Kate Hawley, Frankenstein
Could Win: Ruth E. Carter, Sinners
Best Editing
© NEON
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value
Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another
Stephen Mirrione, F1
Michael P. Shawver, Sinners
One Battle After Another is defined by its frantic pace, which maintains a precise tension over a near-3-hour runtime. In the fight between OBBA and Sinners, Andy Jurgensen should edge out Michael P. Shawyer.
Will Win: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another
Could Win: Michael P. Shawver, Sinners
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
© IFC and Shudder
Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine & Shunika Terry, Sinners
Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg, The Ugly Stepsister
Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel & Cliona Furey, Frankenstein
Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin & Bjoern Rehbein, The Smashing Machine
Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino & Tadashi Nishimatsu, Kokuho
Three horror films spotlighting SFX are duking it out in an exciting Makeup and Hairstyling category. In a less busy year, Thomas Foldberg’s prosthetic design for The Ugly Stepsister, the lynchpin of the Norwegian film, could have replicated Pierre Olivier-Persin’s win for fellow body horror spectacle The Substance, but considering Jacob Elordi’s transformation into Frankenstein’s monster, Mike Hill and co. will very likely triumph here—with Sinners offering the Del Toro film stiff competition.
Will Win: Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel & Cliona Furey, Frankenstein
Could Win: Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine & Shunika Terry, Sinners
Best Sound
© Apple
José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio & Tony Villaflor, One Battle After Another
Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke & Brad Zoern, Frankenstein
Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo & Juan Peralta, F1
Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas & Yasmina Praderas, Sirat
Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor & Steve Boeddeker Sinners
Fuelled by revving car engines, the dynamic sound design for F1 will likely get the Joseph Kosinski film its only win of the night. If not, expect Sinners to take this one too.
Will Win: Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo & Juan Peralta, F1
Could Win: Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor & Steve Boeddeker Sinners
Best Visual Effects
© Universal
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon & Daniel Barrett, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen & Brandon K. McLaughlin, The Lost Bus
Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean, Sinners
Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington & Keith Dawson, F1
David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan & Neil Corbould, Jurassic World: Rebirth
The third Avatar film may be the first in the franchise to not receive a Best Picture nomination, but that doesn’t mean that the sci-fi epic won’t triumph in this category like its two predecessors.
Will Win: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon & Daniel Barrett, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Could Win: Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean, Sinners
Best Original Score
© Focus Features
Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein
Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia
Ludwig Göransson, Sinners
Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another
Max Richter, Hamnet
Perhaps the easiest category to predict, excluding Best Actress (which Jessie Buckley will surely win), Ludwig Göransson’s forceful, Blues-infused score for Sinners will almost certainly earn the Swedish composer his third Oscar.
Will Win: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners
Could Win: Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another
Best Original Song
© Warner Bros.
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless, Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon & Teddy Park
“I Lied To You” from Sinners, Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq & Ludwig Goransson
“Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from Viva Verdi! Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave
Speaking of Göransson, the composer could win another Oscar for his part in writing “I Lied to You”, performed by Miles Caton. Unfortunately for the Sinners team, their track is squaring off against global juggernaut KPop Demon Hunters, with its smash hit “Golden” likely taking the gold statue.
Will Win: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon & Teddy Park
Could Win: “I Lied To You” from Sinners, Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq & Ludwig Goransson